Mindy L. Mallory

Economist

Research

My research focuses on agricultural marketing and policy. I analyze prices and risk in commodity, environmental, and natural resource markets to determine if they function in an efficient manner. Also, my work investigates whether risk management activities and governmental policies are effective.

Appointments

2009-2015 University of Illinois Assistant Professor, Agriculture and Consumer Economics

2016-present University of Illinois Associate Professor, Agriculture and Consumer Economics

Education

2005-2009 Iowa State University, Economics Ph.D.

2003-2005 Emporia State University, Mathematics M.S.

1999-2003 Emporia State University, Mathematics Education B.S.E

Publications

Peer Reveiwed Journal Articles

2017 Trujillo-Barrera, A., P. Garcia, M. Mallory. 2017. “Short-Term Price Density Forecasts in the Lean Hog Futures Market.” European Review of Agricultural Economics, Forthcoming.

Yu, J., and M.L. Mallory. 2017. “Carbon Price Interaction between Allocated Parties and Generated Offsets.” Operational Research, Available here.

Etienne, X.L., M.L. Mallory, and S.H. Irwin. 2017. “Estimating the Cost of Pre-Harvest Forward Contracting Corn and Soybeans in Illinois Before and After 2007.” Agribusiness: an International Journal 00:1-21. Available here.

2016 Shah, P., M. Mallory, A. Ando, and G. Guntenspergen. 2016. “Fine-Resolution Conservation Planning with Limited Climate-Change Information.” Conservation Biology, 31(2):278-289. Available here.

Trujillo-Barrera, A., P. Garcia, M. Mallory. 2016. “Price Density Forecasts in the U.S. Hog Market: Composite Procedures.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics Available here.

2015 Mallory, M.L., W. Zhao, and S.H. Irwin. 2015. “The cost of post-harvest forward contracting in corn and soybeans.” Agribusiness 31(1):47–62. Available here.

Yu, J., and M.L. Mallory. 2015. “An optimal hybrid emission control system in a multiple compliance period model.” Resource and Energy Economics 39:16–28. Available here.

2014 Mallory, M.L., and A.W. Ando. 2014. “Implementing efficient conservation portfolio design.” Resource and Energy Economics. Available here.

Yu, J., and M.L. Mallory. 2014. “Exchange rate effect on carbon credit price via energy markets.” Journal of International Money and Finance 47:145–161. Available here.

2013 T. Zhang, M. Mallory, and P. Barry. 2013. “Determinants of the patronage refund decision of farm credit system associations.” Agricultural Finance Review 73(1):102–118. Available here.

Sherrick, B.J., M.L. Mallory, and T. Hopper. 2013. “What’s the ticker symbol for farmland?” Agricultural Finance Review 73(1):6–31. Available here.

2012 Ando, A.W., and M.L. Mallory. 2012a. “Optimal portfolio design to reduce climate-related conservation uncertainty in the prairie pothole region.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109(17):6484–6489. Available at: here.

Ando, A.W., and M.L. Mallory. 2012b. “Reply to dunkel and weber: Probability distributions and shortfall risk measures in conservation portfolio analysis.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 109(35):E2305. Available here.

Mallory, M., and K. Baylis. 2012. “The food corporation of India and the public distribution system: Impacts on market integration in wheat, rice, and pearl millet.” Journal of Agribusiness 30(2). Available here.

Mallory, M.L., S.H. Irwin, and D.J. Hayes. 2012. “How market efficiency and the theory of storage link corn and ethanol markets.” Energy Economics 34(6):2157–2166. Available here.

Mallory, M., and S. Lence. 2012. “Testing for cointegration in the presence of moving average errors.” Journal of Time Series Econometrics 4(2). Available here.

Trujillo-Barrera, A., M. Mallory, P. Garcia. 2012. “Volatility spillovers in US crude oil, ethanol, and corn futures markets.” Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics 37(2):247. Available here.

2011 Irwin, S.H., D.L. Good, and M.L. Mallory. 2011. “Could a variable ethanol blender’s tax credit work?” Biofuels 2(3):277–284. Available here.

Mallory, M.L. 2011a. “Alternative biofuel policies: An economic comparison.” Biofuels 2(3):267–276. Available here.

Mallory, M.L. 2011b. “Coordination problems, strategic complementarities, and multiple equilibria in an alternative fuel market.” Environmental Economics 2(1):38–49. Available here.

Mallory, M.L., D.J. Hayes, and B.A. Babcock. 2011. “Crop-based biofuel production with acreage competition and uncertainty.” Land Economics 87(4):610–627. Available here.

2009 Du, X., D.J. Hayes, and M.L. Mallory. 2009. “A welfare analysis of the U.S. ethanol subsidy.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy 31(4):669–676. Available here.

Conference Proceedings

2016 Shang, Q., M. Mallory, and P. Garcia. 2016. “The Components of the Bid-Ask-Spread: Evidence from the Corn Futures Market.” NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO.

Shang, Q., M. Mallory, and P. Garcia. 2016. “The Electronic Live Cattle Futures Market Bid Ask Spread Behaviors and Components” Agricultural and Applied Economics Association>2016 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Boston, Massachusetts

2015 Mallory, M., P. Garcia, and T. Serra. 2015. “Nearby and Deferred Quotes: What They Tell Us about Linkages and Adjustments to Information.” NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO.

2013 Trujillo, A., P. Garcia, and M. Mallory. 2013. “Price Density Forecasts in the U.S. Hog Market: Composite Procedures.” NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO.

2012 Trujillo, A., P. Garcia, and M. Mallory. 2012. “Density Forecasts of Lean Hog Prices.” Proceedings of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO.

Mallory, M. and K. Baylis. 2012. “The Food Corporation of India and the Public Distribution System: Impacts on Market Integration in Wheat, Rice, Pearl Millet, and Corn.” Proceedings of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO.

2011 Trujillo, A., M. Mallory, and P. Garcia. 2011. “Volatility Spillovers in US Crude Oil, Ethanol and Corn Futures Markets.” Proceedings of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO.

2010 Mallory, M. and S. Irwin. 2010. “The Forward Contract’s Income Shifting Option and Implications on the Forward Basis.” Proceedings of the NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO.

Books

2015 Mallory, M. Price Analysis: A Fundamental Approach to the Study of Commodity Prices. In-progress web version available here

Web Applications

2014 Mallory, M. Demonstrating Leverage in Option Markets. Available here.

Presentations

Invited Talks

2017 “Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets.” Seminar, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Washington DC, August 23, 2017.

“Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets.” Seminar, USDA ERS, Washington DC, August 24, 2017.

“Measuring Price Discovery between Nearby and Deferred Contracts in Storable and Non-Storable Commodity Futures Markets.” Seminar, University of Wisconsen, October, 2017.

2016 “The Components of the Bid-ask Spread: Evidence from the Corn Futures Market.” Seminar, Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics, Montana State University, September 23, 2016.

2015 “Exchange Rate Effect on Carbon Credit Price via Energy Markets.” IPAM Workshop III: Commodity Markets and Their Financialization, University of California, Los Angeles, May 6, 2015.

2012

“How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets.” Invited presentation at the Agricultural Economics Department, Oklahoma State University. April 6, 2012.

“Optimal Portfolio Design to Reduce Climate-Related Conservation Uncertainty in the Prairie Pothole Region.” Invited presentation at the Center for Earth and Environmental Science, Indiana University-Purdue University Indianapolis. April 18, 2012.

“How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets.” Invited presentation at the Department of Economics, Illinois State University, October 10, 2012.

“How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets.” Invited presentation at the Department of Agricultural Economics, University of Kentucky, October 12, 2012.

Conference Presentations

2015

Mallory, M., P. Garcia, and T. Serra. “Nearby and Deferred Quotes: What They Tell Us about Linkages and Adjustments to Information.” NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. April 2015.

2012

Mallory M., and K. Baylis. “The Food Corporation of India and the Public Distribution System: Impacts on Market Integration in Wheat, Rice, and Pearl Millet.” NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. April 2012.

Ando, A., and M. Mallory. “The Perils of Shortcuts in Efficient Conservation Portfolio Design.” AAEA Annual Meeting, Seattle, WA, August 13, 2012.

Mallory M., H. Zahran, and S. Irwin. “Profit and Prices in the Biodiesel Industry.” NC-1177 Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C. October 26, 2012.

2011

Mallory, M., X. Etienne, and S. Irwin. “Estimating the Cost of Forward Contracting Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat.” WAEA Annual Meeting, Banff, Alberta, Canada, June 2011.

Mallory, M. “Energy Policy: Implications for Farmer Cash Flow and Land Values.” NC-1177 Annual Meeting, Denver, CO. October 2011.

2010 Mallory, M., and S. Irwin. “The Forward Contract’s Income Shifting Option and Implications on the Forward Basis.” NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management. St. Louis, MO. March 2010.

Mallory, M., D. Hayes, and S. Irwin. “How Market Efficiency and the Theory of Storage Link Corn and Ethanol Markets.” Biobased Industry Center Bioenergy Camp. Perry, IA. May 20, 2010.

Mallory, M., and S. Lence. “Much Ado about the Wrong Thing? Cointegration Analysis of Commodity Prices.” AAEA Annual Meeting, Denver, CO, July 2010.

2009

2008

Mallory, M., D. Hayes, and B. Babcock. “Crop Based Biofuel Production under Acreage Constraints and Uncertainty.” AAEA annual meeting, Orlando, FL, July 2008.

Posters

2013 Kim, S.W., and M. Mallory. “Trader Twitter Chatter and Corn Futures Price Volatility.” ASSA Annual Meeting, San Diego, CA, January 5, 2013.

2011

Miller, B., M. Mallory, K. Baylis, and C. Hart. “Spatial Basis Effects of Corn-Belt Ethanol Plants.” AAEA Annual Meeting, Pittsburgh, PA, July 2011.

Yu, J., and M. Mallory. “An Optimal Safety Valve for Emission Trading in a Multi-Compliance Period Model.” Heartland Environmental and Resource Economics Workshop. Urbana, IL. October 2011.

Teaching

2015-

Commodity Price Analysis, Link

2011-

Applied Economic Theory, Link

2010-2012

Food and Commdodity Markets, Link

2009-2011, 2016

Commodity Futures and Options, Link

Supervision of Graduate Students

Doctoral Students Supervised

In Progress Quanbiao Shang
Selina Han

2015 Beth Miller (co-advisor), 2015. Placed at the Environmental Protection Agency

2014 Christina Jolejole, Ph.D. (co-advisor) 2014. “Three Essays on Food Security.” Placed at Harvard, research fellow.

2013 Jongmin Yu, Ph.D. 2013. “Three Essays on Emission Credit Markets.” Placed at Korea Capital Markets Institute, Research Fellow; currently an assistant professor at Hongik University, Korea.

2011 Tianwei Zhang, Ph.D. 2011. “Three Essays on Patronage Refunds and the Capital Structure of Farm Credit System Associations.” Placed at the University of Colorado, Denver, Instructor; currently lecturer in the Economics department at the University of Georgia.

Master’s Students Supervised

2016 Quanbiao Shang
Menas Falakos

Participation on Ph.D. Dissertation Committees

2016 Xin Li

2015 Kishore Joseph
Tisorn Songsermsawas

2013 Xiaoyang Wang
Xiaoli Liao
Payal Shah
Andres Trujillo

Participation on Master’s Examining Committees

2015 Andres Baustista

2013 Anamaria Guadencio
Hala Zahran

2011 Luis Figar

Offices in Professional Scocieties

2013 NC-1177 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, past president, 2013.

Agricultural Finance and Management section of AAEA, past chair, 2013.

2012 NC-1177 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, president, 2012.

Agricultural Finance and Management section of AAEA, chair, 2012.

2011

NC-1177 Agricultural and Rural Finance Markets in Transition, secretary, 2011.

Agricultural Finance and Management section of American Agricultural Economics Association (AAEA), chair-elect, 2011.

Grants Recieved

2015 Rausch, K., K. Baylis, M. Mallory, H. Michelson, M. Paulsen, J. Hart and G. Czapar. 2015-

  1. “Reduction of Post-Harvest Loss in Bihar” ADM Institute for the Prevention of Post-Harvest Loss ($447,239).

Mallory, M. 2015. “Food Price Forecasting Issues, Techniques and Opportunities Workshop.” Economic Research Service of the USDA. $35,000.

2013 Co-PIs: Ando, A., J. Fratterigo, G. Guntenspergen, and M. Mallory. 2013-2016. “Spatial Conservation and Investment Portfolios to Manage Climate-Related Risk.” National Science Foundation. $402,539. ($78,000 allocated to Mallory).

2012 Mallory, M. “Reducing Postharvest Losses of Grain and Oilseed Crops in India.” William and Flora Hewlett International Research Travel Grant. October 2012. $2,500.

Co-PIs: Baylis, K., D. Chhajed, M. Mallory, and U. Palekar. 2012-2014. “Supply Chain Policy and Strategy Analysis for Prevention of Postharvest Loss.” ADM Institute for the Prevention of Postharvest Loss. $238,000 ($56,925.27 allocated to Mallory).

Co-PIs: A. Ando and M. Mallory. United States Geological Survey. 2012. “Economic Tools for Conservation Decision Making and Land Management under Climate Change.” $34,192 ($17,096 allocated to Mallory).

2011 Mallory, M. 2011. “State of Agricultural Policy in India and Brazil.” ADM Institute for the Prevention of Postharvest Loss. $44,000.

Mallory, M. May 2011-November 2011. Office of International Programs, College of ACES. “Developing a Collaboration with Faculty and Students at the Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi on the Marketing of Grains and Oilseeds in India.” University of Illinois International Seed Grants Program. Project: $2,500.

Mallory, M. 2011. Karl E. Gardner Teaching Enhancement Grant. $2,000.

2010

Mallory, M. June 2010-December 2010. “A Comparison of the Economics of Some Alternative Biofuel Policies.” Illinois Corn Marketing Board. $25,000.